Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.015769 0.017835 0.020071 0.022671 0.025613 0.028838 0.032643
2025-10-19 0.012711 0.015603 0.018997 0.023276 0.028532 0.034783 0.042792
2025-10-26 0.010711 0.013904 0.017863 0.023140 0.029997 0.038621 0.050316
2025-11-02 0.009355 0.012711 0.017067 0.023142 0.031412 0.042300 0.057769
2025-11-09 0.008170 0.011550 0.016111 0.022727 0.032103 0.044949 0.063954
2025-11-16 0.007444 0.010902 0.015737 0.023004 0.033680 0.048839 0.072100
2025-11-23 0.006707 0.010146 0.015109 0.022814 0.034510 0.051672 0.078896
2025-11-30 0.006281 0.009791 0.015011 0.023359 0.036427 0.056193 0.088539
2025-12-07 0.005607 0.008987 0.014153 0.022649 0.036332 0.057621 0.093479
2025-12-14 0.005105 0.008399 0.013567 0.022293 0.036728 0.059793 0.099720
2025-12-21 0.004605 0.007767 0.012851 0.021650 0.036581 0.061049 0.104512
2025-12-28 0.004451 0.007689 0.013020 0.022471 0.038909 0.066513 0.116794
2026-01-04 0.004239 0.007499 0.012998 0.022981 0.040777 0.071403 0.128607
2026-01-11 0.004054 0.007342 0.013016 0.023562 0.042818 0.076758 0.141724
2026-01-18 0.003773 0.006986 0.012653 0.023426 0.043551 0.079838 0.150944
2026-01-25 0.003540 0.006696 0.012383 0.023428 0.044524 0.083408 0.161348
2026-02-01 0.003269 0.006313 0.011910 0.023008 0.044660 0.085424 0.168930
2026-02-08 0.003116 0.006139 0.011812 0.023288 0.046150 0.090092 0.182053
2026-02-15 0.002917 0.005859 0.011486 0.023096 0.046690 0.092958 0.191800
2026-02-22 0.002821 0.005776 0.011535 0.023647 0.048755 0.098967 0.208439
2026-03-01 0.002592 0.005402 0.010980 0.022929 0.048166 0.099594 0.213905
2026-03-08 0.002419 0.005133 0.010614 0.022568 0.048285 0.101660 0.222571
2026-03-15 0.002232 0.004818 0.010130 0.021917 0.047733 0.102276 0.228126